【摘要】In recent years, Arctic climate change has not only affected the global environment but also enhanced the region’s strategic and economic significance. Both China and India have shown growing interest in the Arctic. Following the Russia–Ukraine conflict, the region has witnessed an intensified trend of “re- securitization,” disrupting its governance system. Against this backdrop, examining the roles of China and India in Arctic affairs and assessing their cooperation potential hold substantial theoretical and practical relevance. Drawing on structural and neo-classical realist theories, this study constructs an analytical framework centered on structural and situational factors. It argues that the complex geopolitical and institutional landscape of the Arctic imposes significant constraints on China–India cooperation. Nevertheless, the two states retain notable potential for collaboration in areas such as climate change research, environmental protection, and sustainable develop ment–fields characterized by low costs, high long-term returns, and positive cognitive resonance. In contrast, cooperation in Arctic shipping and the blue economy entails higher costs, greater perceptual divergence, and a narrower scope for joint action. As bilateral relations gradually stabilize, cooperation in the relatively low-sensitivity domain of Arctic affairs could further bridge differences, rebuild trust, and help address the region’s most pressing challenges.
近年来，北极气候变化不仅对全球生态环境造成影响，还大幅提升了该地区的战略与经济价值。中国与印度两国对北极事务的关注度持续上升。俄乌冲突爆发后，北极地区出现明显的“再安全化”趋势，原有北极治理体系受到冲击。在此背景下，探析中印两国在北极事务中的角色、评估双方合作潜力，具备重要的理论价值与现实意义。本文依托结构现实主义与新古典现实主义理论，搭建以结构性因素、情境性因素为核心的分析框架。研究认为，北极复杂的地缘政治格局与制度环境对中印北极合作形成显著约束；但两国在气候变化科研、生态环境保护、可持续发展等领域仍具备可观合作空间——此类领域合作成本低、长期收益高，且双方认知契合度较高。与之相对，北极航道、蓝色经济领域的合作投入成本更高，双方认知分歧更大，可协同开展合作的空间更为有限。随着中印双边关系逐步企稳，北极事务这类敏感度相对较低的合作领域，能够进一步弥合两国分歧、重塑互信，共同应对北极地区亟待解决的各类难题。
【作者简介】高飞，中国海洋大学法学院2022级国际法专业博士研究生
【文章来源】India Review，SSCI
